From inputs to impact
Structured thinking makes planning easier
At this point in the year lots of us will be turning our thoughts to planning. This post is about the intellectual structure you need around a plan – both to set it up right and to lay the foundations for measuring impact later. Happy planning!
There's a lot of merit in setting clear goals and then giving people / teams plenty of freedom to execute in ways that will maximise their likelihood of success.
At the same time, it’s useful to have a clear conceptual framework for the task at hand. This helps ensure that there's an underlying logic to the approach and that the right things get measured.
A good theory of change encapsulates the following:
Inputs: resources to be invested, e.g. people or capital
Activities: concrete actions that will be taken
Outputs: tangible products produced by the activities
Outcomes: changes in the world expected as a result
Teams can use this framework to build a theory of change together, drawing on a range of different perspectives and experiences. Typically most of the inputs are taken as a given, and you build out from them toward the target outcomes.
The final stage – beyond outcomes – is impact. This comes into play toward the end of a project or planning cycle, when you need to get a handle on what was ultimately achieved vis-a-vis the original goal(s).
A good working definition for this is as follows:
Impact: outcomes adjusted for (a) what would have happened anyway, (b) the actions of others, and (c) unintended consequences
Measuring impact can be challenging, particularly in more complex operating environments. Having a coherent theory of change doesn't magically solve this problem – but it does provide a logical structure to frame your conclusions.